The race for critical minerals is reshaping global geopolitics. Cobalt, coltan, lithium and copper –concentrated across sub-Saharan Africa – are essential to the green and digital transitions. As demand accelerates, so does competition among major powers seeking access. The central questions remain: Who captures the value? Under what conditions can the benefits be broadly shared while costs are fairly managed?

For African countries, this is a strategic inflection point, not just another commodity cycle. Governments are increasingly examining how others have approached critical minerals policy to strengthen their own negotiating positions. At the same time, growing scrutiny from researchers, civil society, and affected communities highlight the risks of repeating extractive models that marginalize local populations and externalize environmental costs, regardless of the partner involved.

Historically, infrastructure and financing have prioritized extraction and export over domestic value creation. Today, a range of external partners, including the EU, US, China, the Gulf states, Japan and South Korea, are advancing competing as well as complementary investment frameworks. These create new opportunities, but also bring the risk of fragmentation and renewed dependency if not strategically managed.

This session moves beyond supply chains to focus on African agency, industrial strategy and value capture. How can African countries move beyond raw material exports to shape the terms of extraction, processing, refining, manufacturing and partnerships, while ensuring benefits are broadly shared and sustainable? This also raises a broader question about development pathways: Will this moment reinforce existing extractive patterns or support more diversified and sustainable growth? How will these outcomes be distributed in practice?